The lesson of Ukraine? If we give Zelensky the tools, he will finish the job.

Experts agree that the Russian invasion has not gone according to plan. What was meant to be a classic Blitzkrieg has morphed into siege warfare.

with multiple population centres now being pounded with increasingly deadly (and in many cases illegal) munitions. The initial assault, using fast-moving light armoured units, failed to take Kyiv, Kharkiv, Mariupol and other strategic targets. Ukrainian claims that 4,500 Russian troops have been killed, while hundreds more have been taken prisoner, are credible. However, it is likely that Ukrainian military casualties are of a similar order of magnitude and the civilian death toll in the thousands rather than the hundreds so far admitted.

Meanwhile Wagner Group mercenaries (mostly Spetsnaz and other special forces veterans) operating behind Ukrainian lines have so far failed to decapitate the leadership in Kyiv. According to one unverified report, an entire formation of Chechens sent to kill or capture President Zelensky was wiped out by drone and missile strikes, with the loss of 56 tanks and many hundreds of men, including their notorious commander, General Tushayev. If correct, this is a stunning blow to Putin’s Chechen satrap, Ramzan Kadyrov, who was filmed rallying his troops shortly before their abortive mission. During the Russian invasion of Georgia in 2008, Chechen death squads operated with Ossetian separatists in carrying out ethnic cleansing against Georgian civilians.

Putin’s war of movement having run out of steam, he is now sending in large reserves of heavy armour, artillery and infantry to reduce Kyiv to rubble. The formation seen by satellites approaching the capital overnight was 40 miles long, in some places several vehicles abreast. This implies a tank army numbering tens of thousands of troops. Such a show of force suggests that Putin has ordered his generals to capture Kyiv at all costs, in the hope that this will break Ukrainian resistance. A rapid conquest is all-important, in the hope that he can present an unexpectedly hostile and united world with a fait accompli.

Once again, exposing such large columns to airborne attack is a high-risk move. Safety is being sacrificed for speed. Just as in 2008, when they sent similar columns through the mountain passes of the Caucasus, confident that their opponents would be incapable of interception, the Russians are gambling on the likelihood that, after nearly a week of intensive combat, Ukrainian forces are running short of missiles, aircraft and lethal drones. Zelensky’s now immortal retort to Biden’s offer of evacuation, “I need ammunition, not a ride”, points to his greatest weakness: supply lines. Without huge quantities of modern equipment and ammunition, no amount of courage can prevail against such heavy odds.

What could redress the balance would be for what Roosevelt called “the arsenal of democracy” to start resupplying Ukraine with the wherewithal to defend itself. Nowadays, that means not just the United States but also Britain, France and, crucially, Germany. Despite their pacifist rhetoric, the Germans are actually Europe’s biggest arms manufacturers. Last year Germany’s arms exports were twice as large as the UK’s (about £7.5 billion compared to £3.5 billion).

Not a single German bullet went to Ukraine, although substantial quantities of dual-use equipment were sold to Russia. This is why it mattered so much that in the weeks before the invasion, Berlin refused to allow German weaponry to be sent to Ukraine by third parties — not even old East German artillery offered by Estonia. Sunday’s U-turn by Chancellor Scholz, who has finally come off the fence to offer at least verbal support for Ukraine, may be too little, too late unless the Germans are prepared to risk the ire of the Kremlin to match their words with action.

Ammunition depots have been among the Russians’ priority targets and their control of Ukrainian airspace means that the defenders of Kyiv